The CBOE website has the historical VIX term structure.
As I mentioned before there is a strong relationship between high yield OAS and VIX.
Here is the model vs. the actual near-term+6 VIX:
I'm using the high yield OAS as the only input for the model. The R-squared is an impressive 94%.
So, what is this model telling us today?
The fair value for the Dec VIX is about 24.95%. The actual as of 2/19/10 was 23.95%, so about 1% lower than the model tells us.
As you can see this is the Dec VIX fair value, the VIX spot and the near term is a lot more volatile.
I'm working on a model to come up with a fair value for the shorter term VIX as well.
Let me know you thoughts.