Monday, February 22, 2010

VIX Fair Value Model

I created a model which comes up with the fair value of the near-tem+6 VIX value.

The CBOE website has the historical VIX term structure.

As I mentioned before there is a strong relationship between high yield OAS and VIX.

Here is the model vs. the actual near-term+6 VIX:


I'm using the high yield OAS as the only input for the model. The R-squared is an impressive 94%.

So, what is this model telling us today?

The fair value for the Dec VIX is about 24.95%. The actual as of 2/19/10 was 23.95%, so about 1% lower than the model tells us.

As you can see this is the Dec VIX fair value, the VIX spot and the near term is a lot more volatile.

I'm working on a model to come up with a fair value for the shorter term VIX as well.

Let me know you thoughts.


7 comments:

  1. Hey,

    Great blog, congratulations!
    Where did you get your OAS data, is it freely available somewhere?
    Also, what exactly do you mean by "near-term+6"?
    Thanks, and apologies if these questions don't make any sense.

    ReplyDelete
  2. By near term+6 I meant the 6th expiration. For example, today that would be 12/18/2010. You can find more info about the VIX term structure on CBOE website. Send me an e-mail to volatilitysquare@gmail.com if you want the OAS data.

    ReplyDelete
  3. So it's the VIX futures 6 months out? Great, thanks very much!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Sorry, I meant 6 contracts out. Great blog by the way, very informative and thought provoking.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Robert,

    did you decide to drop this blog? Why? I thought you were writing some good things. This VIX model is interesting, I would like to discuss, give me a ring.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Have you heard about spurious regressions

    ReplyDelete
  7. i trade vix futures exclusively. if you could share some fair val modeling i am certain i can add equal insights in return.

    ReplyDelete